Climate change impact on crop productivity: a bio-economic analysis

Abstract

Bangladesh, being an agriculture based country, is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study, on a upazilla of Narshingdi named Manahardi, aims at understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and gross margin on six major staple and cash crops of Bangladesh. The analyses combine three levels of increasing temperature (1°C, 2°C, and 3°C) with two levels of decreasing precipitation (10 and 20 percent). Secondary data source reveals the present climate, soil and production condition of the specific area. The production systemis replicated through a bioeconomic model; that combines a biophysical and an economic model sequentially. The study reveals that simultaneous changes of precipitation and temperature have an effect on crop productivity and gross margin. Crop productivity falls by 13 to 16% and income 8 to 17% when the temperature increases moderately (1°C). As the climate warms up (2°C and 3°C), average crop productivity and income are severely affected, by 27 to 37% and 30 to 43%, respectively.